A Very Disrupted Market
Issue #10 The World's 4th largest auto market, Nio's new 100kWh battery, Cybertruck numbers...
Hey Shakers, what a crazy week last week! A lot still going on in the EV world with disruption in the Legacy Auto industry, this week we take a look at the World's 4th largest auto market, Nio's new 100kWh battery, Tesla Cybertruck numbers, and more...Oh and btw, scroll down to "Eye on The Market" to find out how to follow my live EV stock market dashboard at Koyfin.
The 4th Largest Auto Market
October's data analysis demonstrates how Germany's electric vehicle market has sky rocketed. In this section I break down a few key takeaways from Dr Maximilian Holland's article for Clean Technica.
Dr Holland's article points out that more than 17.5% of the auto sales in Germany are now plugin EV's, his research indicates that last year at this time EV shares were at 3% in 2019, this is a growth rate of 4 times that in one years time. This beats clean-technology bulls' forecasting expectations by a long shot.
He states in his article that "Germany is by far the largest regional auto market in Europe (almost a quarter of Europe’s total volume) and is now passing 17.5% in the month of October, and almost 11% for the year’s cumulative tally."
Let's take a look at Germany's result in more detail. "The 17.5% share comprised 8.4% pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 9.1% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This proportion is on trend with the cumulative year-to-date results of 5.25% BEV and 5.65% PHEVs (10.9% combined)."
And here's which of these EV models were the most popular:
First in line is the Renault Zoe which broke record sales totaling 5014 units sold in October making up 22% of Germany's battery EV's. If we look at the year to date numbers in Germany, they sit at about 20,000 vehicles.
Second in line (in the article Dr. Holland says there isn't a data model available yet) is the Volkswagen ID.3 running right up with the Hyundai Kona driving monthly sales numbers "in the neighbourhood of 1500 to 2000 units" says Dr Holland, with the Tesla Model 3 sitting at 3rd on the list in Germany's race for EV's.
For a deeper look at the report on October, check out the market report written by Jose Pontes for Clean Technica.
In conclusion Dr Holland suspects that we could see the current number of EV's in Germany go from 17.5% to 30% in 2021 with the arrival of Tesla Model Y, VW ID.4, and BMW iX3.
Debunking a Popular EV Myth
If you know anything about the EV Twitter community, there are a lot of great people who like myself also write about the EV industry. Last week I was checking out some articles written by EV Myths and one caught my attention regarding a few common Tesla myths. Check out the highlights:
"A common complaint against Tesla is that they are never 'turning a profit.'" In this article EV Myths explains why this isn't the case and points out how much of the cashflow is often poured back into research and development with the remaining used to keep the company running smoothly.
The article also provides some clarity in the area of the stock market pertaining to Tesla, in the following, EV Myths quote:
"...they do not run their internal economy like other stock market companies do. In such companies, there is a strong push to maximize profitability and enrich shareholders and owners at the expense of the customer and future growth. Tesla raises its money primarily through its customers and stakeholders who understand their mission, believe in the product, and support its principles and purposes above profit."
The article continues on with how this is often a common hangup when investors look at Tesla because most are short-term investors and they fail to look at the big picture over the longterm. A few more details are addressed in the article and I think others may find it a valuable read if they have questions holding them back from investing in Tesla.
A Nio Announcement
Last week Nio announced that it would release an improved 100kWh battery built by CATL using "Cell to Pack" technology to replace their prior 70kWh battery pack. This new design can achieve a higher density of up to 37% more than a conventional type pack, a trend among cutting edge cell technology in the EV industry. According to Nio, we should see an efficiency improvement of up to 20%.
Because Nio offers battery pack swapping capabilities older vehicle models with the 70kWh cell packs can be swapped out with the new 100kWh packs. Nio plans to offer renting/payment options to assist consumers in doing this combined with their "Baas" (battery as a service) plan that was made available this past summer. Read more details about this battery pack in the article by Electrive.
Free EV Charging?
In the r/electricvehicles subreddit for everything EV, I ran across this super cool individual who setup a charging station in front of their home (as there aren't really chargers in his area) to help give other EV drivers a "boost." Here's what they say about it:
Someone commented further down the thread about a site called Plugshare and its confirmed that its listed on the service so other EV drivers can find it. I'd be curious to hear what you guys think about this and how it could help the world through the EV adoption process.
Truck Market Disruption
The American truck market as we know it is huge, many people buy trucks on payments just about as much as their house payment, people really love having a truck! In an article for Tesmanian, Vincent Y lays out the numbers.
In his article Vincent states "For 2019, total pickup trucks sold in the US were 3,113,943 units, with an average price of $51,700 (by JD Power). This equals a $160 billion annual market in the US. "
It's quite interesting to see how the single RWD base model Tesla Cybertruck with 250+ mile range comes in at $39,900 and the premium model with a Tri-motor all wheel drive capability and 500+ miles of range at a starting price of $69,900. Both price points floating just under or a little above the average truck price. This doesn't even scratch the surface on the EV savings, safety features, and Full Self Driving ability advantages of owning a Cybertruck. Read Vincent's conclusion in the article. Legacy Auto truck makers really will have something to compete with, don't even get me started on GM's Hummer EV (an article for another issue).
👁 Eye on The Market
A lot of movement in the markets on my watch list last week despite the election challenges.
$TSLA -1.86% at $429.95 per share. Last week Gary Black former CEO of Aegon Asset Management announced on Twitter some big moves for $TSLA in the coming months, something to look out for:
$NIO finished the week out -1.70% at $41.63 per share. The screenshot below from the October report is why we saw an increase in share price last week.
$XPENG -2.90% at $34.81 per share
$LI down -5.80% at 26.46 per share
$VWAGY - 0.29% at $17.09 per share
$FUV -2.25% at $6.09 per share
To follow my personal EV Dashboard and see it live on Koyfin it's really simple. Sign up for a free account with this link here and it will take you to it.
Something Extra...
I was recently challenged by one of my readers Emmett Naughton (also founder of the Coder Dad's Slack group I'm a member of) to get a Vlog up before the end of last week. I accepted the challenge and did so. The vlog is an intro to what you can expect in parallel to EV Shakeout and technology pertaining to the sustainable advancement of the auto industry, check it out!
What I'm Reading 📖
Volvo Cars Commits To Developing Its Own EV Motors by Jo Borrás for Clean Technica
Why a Biden presidency will accelerate change to electric cars: 10 talking points by Bengt Halvorson for Green Car Reports
That's a wrap my fellow Shakers! A lot packed into this 10th issue of EV Shakeout, its crazy to think it's already been 2 months since it was started. Thanks to all of you for all of your feedback and support in making this newsletter what it has become. Have a great week!